Polish commercial real estate investment market to hit €2.5 billion in 2012
Savills expects commercial real estate investment volumes in Poland during 2012 to reach similar levels to those of 2011 which exceeded €2.5 billion and reflect a growth of 45% on 2010.
The international real estate advisor predicts that in 2012 prime office properties in Warsaw will be the main focus for buyers in Poland, having accounted for 45% of total investment in 2011, 98% of these in Warsaw.
The firm further expects retail assets, which made up 46% of the 2011 total investment volume, to continue attracting foreign and domestic investor interest this year. Unlike offices, 57% of the total retail investment volume took place outside the capital city in 2011, a trend which Savills expects to continue over the next 12 months.
Michal Cwiklinski, head of investment at Savills Poland, says: "In 2011 the Polish investment market performed better than expected by exceeding €2.5 bln. Economic growth in the country remains relatively high and we anticipate similar levels of investment this year with German and US investors remaining the most active. We may also see an increase in UK buyers on the market in 2012."
In terms of yields, Savills suggests prime yields will remain stable across the board in 2012. At the close of 2011 prime office yields in Warsaw's central business district stood at approximately 6.2% and 6.75% in non-central Warsaw locations. Prime shopping center yields were recorded at 6.00% in Warsaw and major regional cities, while in smaller cities shopping centre yields stood at approximately 7.75% - 8.25%. Prime warehouse yields stood at 7.75% in Q4 2011 and Savills anticipates some potential growth in capital values in this sector in 2012 as a result of a slight growth in effective rents.
Michal Stepien, senior consultant in the research and consultancy team at Savills Poland, adds: "The central geographical position of the country, favorable demographics, competitive economy and a stable financial sector have supported the positive GDP growth of the country during the years of the international financial crisis. We believe the prospects for 2012 are largely positive, depending to some extent on the uncertainty of European markets."
The largest office transaction in 2011 was the acquisition of 51% interest in a portfolio of office buildings in Warsaw by CA Immo from Europolis for approximately €139 mln. Apart from this four further office transactions exceeded €100m. In the retail sector the most significant transaction was the acquisition of the remaining 50% interest in Galeria Mokotow in Warsaw by Rodamco from GTC for approximately €237.5 million.
